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The X1950XT is considerably faster than a 8600GT, the 8600 series is not a good buy, at least it won't be till it reaches around $100 for the GT and $140 for GTS. Till then its over priced.
Like Soul said driver conflicts are a non problem.
Your blue screen is a reference to the display driver of your current video card. nv4_disp, Nvidia display basically. It would be unrelated to the hard drive. The noise could be a number of issues, I would expect you to get getting hard drive related errors and such if it was the HD. Google Ultimate Boot CD and burn it as an ISO to a CD, boot it up and under Hard Drive tools run Salvation. It will take an hour give or take and should give you an idea if its your hard drive that's going bad, but I am doubtful.
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